Live record · updated 27 Oct, 15:14
Every pick we post, graded against the closing price.
Nothing is deleted and nothing is picked out after the fact. Each pick is timestamped when it is posted, compared with Pinnacle’s closing price (the sharpest price in the market), and settled at the stake it was posted with. Losers stay in.
Public record since 26 Oct 2026 · 5 Max picks, 5 graded against the close
- 100% of picks have a recorded closing price
- −€8 at €10 a unit at the price and stake in each post, losses included
Prices move, so you may get less. Past results, not a guide to future returns.
Which room would you have been in?
Same pick rules in every room, since the record started on 26 Oct 2026. Max has no daily cap, so it gets the most picks. Units are graded at the price and stake shown in each post; prices move, so you may get less. Past results, not a guide to future returns.
Free group
One pick a day.
−2.0u
profit at the posted price
- Picks
- 2
- Beat the close
- 100%
- Won – lost
- 0 – 2
- ROI
- −100.0%
Pro room
Up to 7 picks a day.
−2.0u
profit at the posted price
- Picks
- 3
- Beat the close
- 100%
- Won – lost
- 0 – 2
- ROI
- −100.0%
Max room
No daily capEdges of 3%+ on match day, up to two per match, the moment they are found.
−0.8u
profit at the posted price
- Picks
- 5
- Beat the close
- 100%
- Won – lost
- 1 – 3
- ROI
- −16.9%
The Max guarantee
If Max picks beat the closing price less than 50% of the time in a calendar month (with at least 100 graded picks), every active Max member gets 50% off the next month, automatically. It covers months from November 2026; a month with fewer than 100 graded picks does not count.
Beat the closing price
100%
5 picks with a closing price
Average price edge vs close
+4.2%
How much better our price was than Pinnacle’s at kickoff
Profit at the posted price
−0.8u
ROI −16.9% over 4 settled
Won – lost
1 – 3
5 picks posted
Early sample: 4 settled Max room picks so far. Profit swings a lot over the first few hundred bets; beating the closing price is the number that shows an edge early.
Edges of 3%+ on match day in Lytic Max Room on Telegram, up to two per match, the moment they are found.
Live record since 26 Oct 2026.
Season backtest · 2025/26
A backtest on last season
The same pick rules replayed on every match of the 2025/26 season in 9 leagues, using the prices that were available before kickoff. This is a backtest, not live betting. The rules were refined on this same season's data, so it is an in-sample test and likely flatters future results.
- Picks
- 1,572
- Beat the close
- 67.2%
- Edge vs close
- +1.5%
Profit at flat stakes over that one season: +4.9u (+0.3%). A single season of results is mostly luck either way; consistently beating the closing price is what pays over time.
Cards & corners plays
Did the play land?
Every match gets a predicted number of cards and corners and one play for each. "Expected" is how often the plays should land at their minimum odds; the record shows how often they did.
Cards plays
2 / 2
Landed 100% · expected 63%
Corners plays
0 / 2
Landed 0% · expected 59%
Posted in the Free group
1 / 1
Landed 100% · expected 64%
All plays
2 / 4
Landed 50% · expected 61%
Month by month
All rooms together, each pick counted once.
| Month | Picks | Beat the close | Vs close | Won – lost | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 5 | 100% | +4.2% | 1 – 3 | −0.8u |
Why so many picks?
The Max room posts every price that beats Pinnacle's fair price by 3% or more within 24 hours of kickoff. It started at 2%, but 2–3% edges barely beat the closing price, so they were dropped. You don't need to bet them all: most members follow a few a day. Stake only what you can afford to lose, and never chase losses. Here is how each size of edge has done. Picks with an edge of 6% or more carry a ⭐ in the room: if you only place a few a day, follow the stars.
| Edge when posted | Picks | Won – lost | Beat the close | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–4% | 4 | 0 – 3 | 100% | −3.0u |
| 4–6% | 1 | 1 – 0 | 100% | +2.2u |
"Beat the close" is the share of picks whose price was better than Pinnacle's final price at kickoff. Over time that is what separates an edge from luck. Profit is in units at the price and stake in each post: past results, not a guide to future returns.
Every Max room pick
Shown once the match has kicked off, so live picks stay with members. Newest first.
| Kickoff | Match | Pick | Odds | Close (fair) | Vs close | Result | Units | Rooms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct, 14:30 | Adrian Mannarino vs Ignacio Buse | Adrian Mannarino to win | 1.65 | 1.60 | +3.2% | Pending | – | Max, Pro |
| 27 Oct, 12:30 | Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev | Andrey Rublev to win | 2.27 | 2.17 | +4.8% | lost | −1.00 | Max, Pro, Free |
| 26 Oct, 20:00 | Sevilla vs CA Osasuna | Over 9.5 corners | 2.49 | 2.42 | +2.8% | won | +2.241.5u stake | Max |
| 26 Oct, 19:30 | Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon | Over 4.5 goals | 3.38 | 3.16 | +7.1% | lost | −1.00 | Max |
| 26 Oct, 18:45 | Santa Clara vs Benfica | Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 2.71 | +3.1% | lost | −1.00 | Max, Pro, Free |
Timestamped when posted
Each pick is stored with the second it went out to the room, before kickoff. Nothing can be added afterwards.
Graded against the closing price
Just before kickoff we record Pinnacle’s price without its margin. A pick “beats the close” when our odds were better than that.
Posted stakes, losers included
The stake follows the edge: 1u at 3–4%, 1.5u at 4–6%, 2.5u at 6–8%, 3u at 8%+. Won pays (odds − 1) × stake, lost is minus the stake, a void returns it. Every pick posted from 26 Oct 2026 counts; nothing earlier does.
Why there is no simulation here
A simulation explores possible paths under assumptions you choose: estimated edge, odds, stake size and number of bets. It does not establish that those assumptions hold in a live market, so it is not evidence of Lytic's performance and is not shown as proof. Only the ledger above is.
How to read the record
Look at the number of settled picks, how often they beat the closing price, the returns and the uncertainty together. A small sample swings a lot, so beating the closing price is the earlier sign of an edge; a positive sample does not guarantee future returns.
Get the picks before kickoff, not after
Every pick, as it's found
Pro gets up to 7 a day. Max gets the biggest edges on every match the moment they appear, with the odds, the fair price and the stake.
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18+. Past results do not guarantee future results, and betting can lose money. See the methodology