Kelly Criterion Calculator

The Kelly Criterion optimizes stake size based on your edge and the odds. Targets long-run bankroll growth while controlling, but never eliminating, drawdown risk.

Bankroll

Odds (decimal)

Your estimated probability (%)

Kelly fraction: 25% Kelly

10% (ultra-conservative)25% (quarter-Kelly)100% (full Kelly)

Full Kelly

8.4% of bankroll

25% Kelly

2.1%

Calculated stake

209

Let Lytic find the bets worth staking on

Lytic compares bookmaker odds with Pinnacle's no-vig price and posts picks priced above the fair odds before kickoff. Every pick is graded against the closing price in public.

Get a free pick on Telegram See the graded record →

How it works

Kelly formula: f = (b×p − q) / b, where b = net odds (odds−1), p = win probability, q = 1−p.

Full Kelly targets long-run growth under accurate, stable probability estimates. Quarter-Kelly (25%) uses a quarter of that stake to reduce exposure; losses and drawdowns remain possible.

Lytic calculates Kelly automatically per bet based on Pinnacle no-vig odds. Read more →

Analytical tool. No winnings guaranteed. Bet responsibly. 18+