Expected Value Calculator
Calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet. Positive EV means the odds imply a lower probability than your estimate. Estimates can be wrong; positive EV does not guarantee a profit.
Bookmaker implied probability: 47.6%
Expected Value
+9.20%
Value bet — the odds compensate more than the risk. Positive expected return per unit staked.
Let Lytic find the positive-EV bets for you
Lytic checks 40+ bookmakers and posts bets priced above the fair odds before kickoff. Every pick is graded against the closing price in public.
Formula and assumptions
EV = (odds × true_probability − 1) × 100
Example: Odds 2.10 with true probability 52% → EV = (2.10 × 0.52 − 1) × 100 = +9.2%
The challenge is estimating the true probability. Lytic uses Pinnacle no-vig odds as a reference — a market reference, not ground truth. Read more about the methodology →
Analytical tool. No winnings guaranteed. Bet responsibly. 18+