No-Vig Calculator
Remove the bookmaker's margin (overround) to find the true probability implied by the market. Enter the odds for each outcome to get the fair (no-vig) odds instantly.
Implied probability: 47.62%
Implied probability: 29.41%
Implied probability: 27.78%
| Outcome | Your Odds | Implied Prob | No-Vig Prob | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 47.62% | 45.43% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 29.41% | 28.06% | 3.56 |
| Away | 3.60 | 27.78% | 26.50% | 3.77 |
| Total / Vig | — | 104.81% | 100.00% | +4.81% vig |
The bookmaker is charging a 4.81% margin (overround). The no-vig odds in the right column reflect a zero-margin market.
What is no-vig?
Bookmakers price every market so the implied probabilities across all outcomes sum to more than 100%. The excess — called the overround, margin, or vig — is the bookmaker's built-in profit. For example, a typical football match might show implied probabilities that sum to 104–108%, meaning roughly 4–8% of every pound wagered flows to the bookmaker over time.
No-vig odds (also called fair odds or devigged odds) remove this margin and express what the odds would be in a zero-margin market. They are your best estimate of the market's true probability for each outcome.
This matters because the odds you bet at must be compared against the true probability — not the distorted implied probability. If you evaluate your bets against vigged odds, you systematically underestimate the required edge, making poor bets look acceptable.
Proportional vs Shin devigging
There are two common methods to remove the vig:
Proportional method (used here)
Each implied probability is divided by the total implied probability. Simple, transparent, and easy to reproduce: the margin is removed in proportion to each outcome's weight.
Shin method
The Shin model (Hyun Song Shin, 1993) accounts for the fact that bookmakers face asymmetric information — insiders bet more on likely outcomes. It redistributes the margin non-linearly, typically assigning a slightly higher true probability to underdogs. The result is a more accurate probability estimate, particularly for 1X2 markets.
Lytic uses Shin devigging for 1X2 markets internally as a more accurate estimate of true probability. The proportional method used in this calculator is a solid approximation that is sufficient for most analytical purposes.
The math
Implied probability = 1 / decimal_odds × 100
Total implied = Σ (1 / oddsᵢ) × 100
Overround (vig) = total_implied − 100
No-vig probability = (implied_probᵢ / total_implied) × 100
No-vig (fair) odds = 100 / no_vig_probability
Example — odds 2.10 / 3.40 / 3.60: implied probs are 47.6% + 29.4% + 27.8% = 104.8%. Overround = 4.8%. No-vig probs: 47.6/104.8 = 45.4%, 29.4/104.8 = 28.1%, 27.8/104.8 = 26.5%. Fair odds: 2.20 / 3.56 / 3.77.
Why this matters for value betting
To calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet, you need an estimate of the true probability. The most reliable market-derived estimate is the no-vig probability from a sharp bookmaker like Pinnacle — the principle behind value betting.
If you use the raw implied probability (with vig), your EV estimate will be too low. You will underestimate your edge on genuinely profitable bets, and you risk filtering out bets that are positive-EV.
The no-vig probability is also the input Lytic uses when scanning for edges in real time — stripping the margin from Pinnacle's odds and comparing the result to prices at soft bookmakers. If you want to understand more about how odds are structured, read our guide to betting odds.
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Lytic strips the vig from Pinnacle odds in real time and surfaces edges across 40+ bookmakers — so you see the edge, not just the odds.
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